The Importance of Quarterbacks in the NFL Draft
Quarterback is the most crucial position on a football team. It’s no surprise that a premium is placed on quarterbacks in the NFL Draft. However, the incentives for selecting quarterbacks have changed in recent years, making them even more valuable.
In 2011, the NFL Collective Bargaining Agreement implemented a rookie wage scale, drastically reducing salaries for the first few picks. This has made teams more willing to take quarterbacks early in the draft, as they are no longer paid like Pro Bowlers without having played a single NFL game.
The 2024 NFL Draft is expected to be a prime example of this trend. Quarterbacks are projected to be the first three picks, with some mock drafts even predicting four straight quarterbacks to start the selection process. This year’s top quarterback prospects include USC’s Caleb Williams, LSU’s Jayden Daniels, UNC’s Drake Maye, and Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy.
Having a franchise quarterback on a cost-contained rookie contract is incredibly valuable in the NFL. It allows teams to build talented rosters that would otherwise be impossible to construct. But are teams getting a good return on their investment when they select a quarterback in the first round?
The Return on Investment for First-Round Quarterbacks
A review of the first 10 years of quarterbacks taken in the first round and playing under the rookie wage scale (2011 through 2020) provides some insight into this question. We will examine the number of multi-year contract extensions and re-signings after the expiration of a rookie contract.
It’s worth noting that the 2021 first-round quarterback draft class has been excluded from this analysis, as the deadline to exercise fifth-year options for 2025 is May 2. However, it’s worth mentioning that only one of the five quarterbacks taken in the first 15 picks, Trevor Lawrence, is expected to have his fifth-year option picked up by the Jacksonville Jaguars. The other four have either been traded or are on the trading block.
Out of the 32 quarterbacks taken in the first round from 2011 to 2020, only 13 have received multi-year second contracts from their drafting team. This number is expected to increase to 15 before the 2024 regular season starts, with the Miami Dolphins reportedly working on a contract extension for Tua Tagovailoa and the Green Bay Packers in preliminary discussions with Jordan Love’s representatives.
This means that the second contract rate for first-round quarterbacks is only 46.9%. And out of the nine quarterbacks who have received extensions, only two did so at the earliest possible instance, in their third regular season. The rest had to wait until their fourth season or later to sign a new deal.
So while having a franchise quarterback on a rookie contract is valuable, it’s not a guarantee that they will continue to perform at a high level and earn a second contract with their drafting team.
Conclusion
The NFL Draft is an exciting time for fans and teams alike, with the potential to find a franchise quarterback who can lead a team to success. However, the data shows that teams must be cautious when selecting a quarterback in the first round, as there is no guarantee that they will continue to perform at a high level and earn a second contract with their drafting team.
But with the right scouting and development, a first-round quarterback can be a valuable asset for a team, both on and off the field. And as we look ahead to the 2024 NFL Draft, it’s clear that quarterbacks will continue to be the most sought-after position, with teams willing to take them early in the hopes of finding their next franchise player.
The High Stakes of Second Contracts for NFL Quarterbacks
When a young quarterback is drafted into the NFL, the pressure is on for them to prove themselves and secure a lucrative second contract. This is a make-or-break moment for both the player and the team, as the success or failure of this deal can have long-lasting consequences.
In recent years, we have seen a trend of quarterbacks receiving massive second contracts, with some even becoming the highest-paid players in the league. But as we have seen, these deals don’t always work out as planned.
One of the most recent examples is Daniel Jones, who just signed a four-year, $160 million contract with the New York Giants. After a breakout season in 2022, the Giants were eager to lock in their franchise quarterback. But as we have seen with other teams, this deal is not a guarantee of success.
Lamar Jackson, the only one of 13 quarterbacks to play under a fifth-year option, also received a massive contract from the Baltimore Ravens. But even with his impressive skills on the field, there is no guarantee that this deal will pan out for the team in the long run.
In fact, several teams have already experienced the downside of these second contracts. The Indianapolis Colts thought they had their franchise quarterback in Andrew Luck, who became the highest-paid player in the league in 2016. But injuries forced him into early retirement, leaving the Colts without their star player.
The Houston Texans also thought they had secured their future with Deshaun Watson’s four-year, $156 million extension. But a deteriorating relationship between Watson and the team led to a surprising trade to the Cleveland Browns, where he received a fully guaranteed five-year, $230 million contract.
And it’s not just the drafting teams that have faced consequences from these second contracts. The Tennessee Titans, Los Angeles Rams, and Philadelphia Eagles all experienced buyer’s remorse with their first and second overall picks, resulting in costly trades and dead money on their salary cap.
In the high-stakes world of the NFL, second contracts for quarterbacks can make or break a team’s future. And as we have seen, even the most promising deals can quickly turn sour. So while these contracts may make headlines and excite fans, it’s important to remember that they come with a significant amount of risk.
The Bottom Line
As the NFL continues to evolve and teams invest more and more in their quarterbacks, the pressure to secure a successful second contract will only increase. But as we have seen, these deals are not a guarantee of success and can have long-lasting consequences for both the player and the team.
So while we celebrate the massive contracts and exciting potential of young quarterbacks, let’s also remember the high stakes involved and the risks that come with these deals. Only time will tell which teams will come out on top, but one thing is for sure: the second contract for an NFL quarterback is a make-or-break moment that can shape the future of a team.
The Quarterback Carousel: Who Will Be the Next Franchise Quarterback?
The NFL offseason is always full of surprises, and this year is no different. One of the biggest storylines is the quarterback carousel, with several high-profile quarterbacks being traded or rumored to be on the move. With so much movement at the most important position in football, it’s worth taking a look at who could potentially become the next franchise quarterback.
The biggest name on the move is Carson Wentz, who was traded from the Philadelphia Eagles to the Indianapolis Colts. Wentz was once considered the future of the Eagles, but his career has taken a downward turn in recent years. On the other hand, Matthew Stafford, who was traded from the Detroit Lions to the Los Angeles Rams, has seen his stock rise as he joins a talented Rams team with Super Bowl aspirations.
But the quarterback carousel doesn’t stop there. The New York Giants, who have been struggling to find a consistent starter since Eli Manning’s retirement, may also be in the market for a new quarterback. Daniel Jones, their current starter, has shown flashes of potential but has yet to prove himself as a franchise quarterback. With the sixth overall pick in the upcoming draft, the Giants could potentially select one of the top four quarterbacks available.
Final Thoughts: The Risk of Drafting a Quarterback
While the quarterback carousel may provide excitement and hope for teams in need of a franchise quarterback, history has shown that drafting a quarterback in the first round is a risky move. Out of the seven quarterbacks who have been definitively labeled as franchise quarterbacks (Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, Andrew Luck, Patrick Mahomes, and Cam Newton), only Mahomes has won a Super Bowl. And while Newton’s career may have ended on a low note, his accomplishments with the Carolina Panthers cannot be overlooked.
Of course, there are still young quarterbacks who have the potential to become franchise quarterbacks, such as Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, and Tua Tagovailoa. But it remains to be seen if they can live up to the expectations and lead their teams to success.
In the end, the quarterback carousel is a high-risk, high-reward game. While some teams may strike gold and find their franchise quarterback, others may end up with a bust. Only time will tell who will come out on top in this game of chance.
